Auburn Hoops just needs to add a little offense to strong defense

by John Pudner
BY THE NUMBERS
SPECIAL TO WWW.ESPNAU.COM

Ironically Auburn has faced the same problem in basketball they have faced in football.  Believe it or not, www.masseyratings.com indicates the 1-6 football team has the 23rd best defense in the country - but at 120th best the offense has barely been a FBS level unit (124 FBS teams).  Likewise, last year the basketball team had the 4th best defense in the SEC (0.989 points allowed per position in SEC play according to www.kenpom.com), but by far the worst offense in the SEC (0.906 points scored per trip).

In my database of projections for more than 2000 D1 basketball players at www.valueaddbasketball.com, it looks clear that with just a little offense Auburn could climb as high as 8th in the SEC this year.  My database projects that seven SEC teams are in the top 35 in the country, so the top half would be tough to crack, but beating out the rest of the conference this year is possible and could portend a very good long-term future.

If you want details on the database refer to this Sports Illustrated article, but basically
any player with a projection of at least 1% impacts his team's scores by 1% and is a solid BCS sub, and anyone with a 3% of higher is a strong BCS starter.  Based on the projected improvements a senior would usually make based on Frankie Sullivan's numbers last year, he projects to improve Auburn’s scores by 3.14%.  As a whole, Auburn’s total of 14.33% is better than Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

However, if Sullivan and Noel Johnson are back to 100% this year, their Value Adds could easily improve enough to get Auburn's offense out of the basement and push them past Georgia, South Carolina, LSU and Texas A&M to be the 8^th best team in the conference.  It may be tough to move higher this season since Value Add has the other seven SEC teams in the top 35 in the country, but Johnson’s projected 0% is based on a season with a bad hand injury, and Sullivan was already the 22^nd best player in the SEC at 4.14% by 2010 before the injury, so could go much higher that their database projections show.

The problem for Auburn's offense last year was that four players - Rob Chubb, Willy Kouassi, Josh Wallace and Verez Ward - all had 0% Value Add ratings on the offensive side of the court.  Some may be surprised Ward is in this list, but he made so many mistakes (turnovers, missed shots) that he was costing the team more points than he was adding on offense.  Chubb and Wallace are two of the reasons the defense is so good, so they have a key role, but this year Auburn must build on the strong defense they helped provide points on the wing or elsewhere.

Where could the points come from?

INSIDE:  Despite the non-existent offense, both Chubb and Kouassi were among the nation’s better shot-blockers to deny teams at the rim.  While Kouassi is gone, junior college transfers Ashauhn Dixon-Tatum (6-foot-11, 1.0% Value Add) and Shareif Adumu (6-foot-8, 0.5%) must score from inside.  The fact that both project a positive means they have potential to contribute at the BCS level based on their JUCO play last year.

GUARDS:  Wallace and Ward also helped the defense by being among the better steals guys in the country, so Wallace is at very least a strong roll player when pressing.  Chris Denson and freshman Brian Greene project as Auburn’s next best players behind Sullivan and Price, so If N. Johnson and Sullivan are back to form Auburn could have four potential offensive threats at guard.

WING: Two 6-foot-5 freshman could provide a huge breakthrough as guards on the wing. Jordan Price is already projected to be 57^th best of almost 200 SEC players, and his 2.16% projected Value Add puts him close to a strong BCS starter (typically 3.0%).  If Shaquille Johnson comes in slightly above his projected 0.84% to the 1% of a solid BCS bench player, Auburn could have a great freshman duo on the wing.  Value Add puts them ahead of veteran Allen Payne (6-foot-6), so it will be interesting to see if Barbee sticks with the experienced players or if Value Add’s projection that the younger players are actually slightly better will indicate playing time.  In any event, players usually more than double their value between their freshman and sophomore season, so Price and S. Johnson could point to a very strong 2014 team.

The offense will have to come from somewhere, but breakthroughs by some of these players could easily move Auburn basketball up the ladder as high as 8^th in the new 14 team conference.  Here are the notes on the entire ladder.

Rnk	Team	Value Add	Notes
1	Florida	32.16	Boynton/Young top 10 in SEC & top 100 in US
2	Missouri	32.04	Pressey/Dixon top SEC duo (17th/42nd in US)
3	Kentucky	31.51	Repeat tough with Noel only top 100 in US
4	Arkansas	29.83	BJ Young surprise SEC MVP?
5	Alabama	28.46	No. 1 def, and Releford one of top 30 in US
6	Tennessee	27.18	Golden/Stokes/Maymon top 250 in US, top SEC trio
7	Mississippi	27.06	5 players in top 500 in US, none top 200
8	Texas A&M	19.81	big gap between 7th and 8th - very balanced, no stars
9	Louisiana St.	19.06	Hickey 14th best in SEC
10	South Carolina	18.76	Harris 10th best in SEC
11	Georgia	15.89	Caldwell-Pope 1-man team, poss All-American
12	Auburn	14.33	Higher if Noel Johnson and Sullivan back 100%
13	Mississippi St.	12.35	No top 500 players in US
14	Vanderbilt	8.08	No top 500 US players - big rebuild

John Pudner is an Auburn resident whose Value Add system has been covered by Sports Illustrated (see below), NBC Sports and ESPN’s national basketball blog.  He wrote baseball columns for the New York Post, and was named the top Sports News Writer in Virginia.  He is a periodic guest on ESPN Auburn.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/23/Value.add.formula/index.html

UNC comes to UAB, Bama gets 4-star, Tubby to Auburn?

Some were surprised when I ranked UAB as the top team in the state again back in November, but they have lived up to it as the only Alabama team still playing. I was with the UTEP guys at their tournament game this weekend, and talked to them about how they pulled out the 2-point win in El Paso against UAB March 6 that probably cost the Blazers an NCAA bid. (OK, I was actually there to see my Marquette lose a two-point heartbreaker to Pac10 champ Washington, but we shared a hotel with UTEP).

However, UAB has made the most of their NIT bid, as Elijah Millsap had 27 points and 15 rebounds to dominate NC State, 72-52, for their second straight blowout win. Now they get another ACC power in UNC. The Tar Heels had enough talent to win a national title but struggled with youthful mistakes and poor defense until rolling through the first two rounds of the NIT including going into Mississippi State for the win.

The season did finally end for the University of Montevallo (25-8) which ended its quest to win another National Division II title to the state (North Alabama won two) with a 79-71 loss in the Sweet Sixteen to Augusta State University (29-3).

Great season Falcons, and see post below for how I ranked the Top 40 teams in the state.

Bama gets 4-star, rumors about Tubby Smith going to Auburn

For 2011, the two big catches for the state go to the University of Alabama with 4-star guard Trevor Releford coming in from Kansas, and 6-5 Charles Hankerson coming in from Miami to put use his wide body underneath to get position and whip passes around. I know it’s not like Auburn and Alabama football, but there are only 25 five stars in the country in basketball, so landing one of the 75 4-stars at www.rivals.com is huge.

The Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune is quoting Tubby Smith as saying the rumors about him coming to Auburn are, “just talk,” but without an outright denial we can hope the new arena might be enticing, and that someone like 5-star guard Cory Joseph of Nevada might follow him to the Plains.

Directions to the UNC at UAB game are at:

http://uabsports.cstv.com/school-bio/albr-directions.html#Bartow

Final Top 40 Alabama Hoops Teams

March 13 - Montevallo nudges out UAH for the #6 ranking in the final Alabama rankings due to All-Peach Belt Conference player Freddy Little leading Montevallo to a shocking 84-70 upset of #2 seed Mount Olive in the first round of the NCAA Division II tournament today. The Falcons will face SC-Aiken tomorrow at 4 p.m. UAH almost joined them in the second round today when freshman Jamie Smith and Zane Campbell combined for 29 points before falling just short of their own upset in a 59-57 OT loss to Rollins.

Tuskegee, which lost to host Arkansas Tech today in the opening round, breaks into the Top 10 due to Clark Thomas leading them to their first SIAC title since 1979 to make the tourney. I ranked all 40 Alabama programs below, after a week that included Troy and UAB both falling one basket short of making the Division 1 tourney against North Texas and UTEP, respectively.

Long before the Division I brackets would be announced, the state already did claim two national titles when All-American Kerry Harvis led the Talladega College Tornados to the United States Collegiate Athletic Association national title over Virginia Southern, and the Talladega women also won the national title.

UAB, Stillman and Troy were three of the nice surprises in the state, playing much better than expected this year.

How do I rate the teams?

I had taken a couple of pokes at the Top 10/25 earlier in the season, but today was able to dump every game played during the season by any of the 40 Alabama teams into a spreadsheet to really do some number crunching. I do want to thank Massey Ratings (http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb) which had these games in a format that meant I didn’t have to reinvent the wheel.

I focused the most on the 159 games played between two Alabama schools on this list. For example, Alabama would be favored if they were to meet Troy in the NIT due to their overall tougher competition in the SEC vs. the Sun Belt. However, I gave the most credit for games played against other state teams, I give Troy the No. 2 ranking because they went into Auburn and won, while Alabama went there and lost.

The other thing I weighed was how a team finished. For example, a few weeks ago I would have ranked Sanford as clearly the 5th best team in the state, and Tuskegee the 20th best team in the state. However, I dropped Samford to No. 11 because Chattanooga was the only team they beat in their final 12 games, while Tuskegee caught fire at the end to catch their first conference title since 1979 and advance to the NCAA Division II tournament, so I moved them all the way up to No. 10.

This doesn’t mean I ignore games against non-state teams, for example Montevallo shocked Augusta State, the #1 Division II team in the state, before the huge upset today. I start with a very objective calculation of all of a team’s games, but from their I use a more subjective evaluation of the 159 in-state games and how the team finished to move teams up or down in the rankings below.

Here is the rundown:

Final Top 40 Alabama Hoops Teams

The following list includes the team’s ranking, their record in in-state games and overall, and then what I consider their most impressive showing against another state team, whether it be a win or keeping it close against a good team. Finally, I add notes on the team:

1, UAB Blazers (in Birmingham) 4-0, 23-7; beat Jacksonville State 87-62 on 11/14/2009 (on road) – one more basket at UTEP in the conference regular season finale probably would have given UAB a bid to the NCAA tournament. However, with 6-foot-6 Elijah Millsap coming back for another year of picking opponents clean and driving to the hoop, and 5-8 Aaron Johnson whipping passes in to set up scores again next year, the Blazers can win Conference USA in 2011. Hopefully they can make an NIT run as well. Since UAB picked up basketball in 1978, they have battled Bama for state supremacy most years, and that should continue.

2, Troy University Trojans (in Troy) 3-2, 20-11; beat Auburn 81-77 on 12/1/2009 (on road) – One more 3-pointer against North Texas would have put them in the NCAA, but winning the regular season Conference USA title guarantees them an NIT bid. Hopefully seniors Brandon Hazzard, Michael Vogler, Richard Delk and Antywan Jones can rain in threes and 6-9 senior Yamene Coleman can give them enough inside to shock someone in the NIT to keep their careers alive.

3, Alabama Crimson Tide (in Tuscaloosa) 2-1, 16-14; beat Auburn 73-61 on 3/3/2010 – It took a little while for Anthony Grant to get his pressure style working in Tuscaloosa, but clearly Bama is playing the best basketball in the state right now and would be favored if they get an NIT bid and play Troy or UAB. The two wins over South Carolina and good fight against Kentucky at the end indicate that 6-9 JaMychal Green should be putting in a ton of points his junior year, and Senario Hillman and super freshman Tony Mitchell should have plenty of steals to give Bama a huge year next year.

4, Auburn Tigers (in Auburn) 3-2, 15-16; beat Alabama 58-57 on 1/27/2010 - This year was a big letdown after last year’s NIT run, but a great new arena, a new coach and good new recruits on the way, the future looks much better. With the rest of the starters graduating, Frankie Sullivan could be babysitting all freshman and sophomores next year but freshman walk-on Josh Wallace could provide a great backcourt with him as he handled full court pressure incredibly well this year.

5, South Alabama Jaguars (in Mobile) 3-3, 17-15; beat Troy 69-67 on 1/14/2010 – It’s been a tougher two years since the incredible Brandon Davis and Domonic Tilford graduated after an incredible 26-7 team got an at large NCAA bid. However, with 6-5 freshman Martino Brock picking opponents and driving to the hoop, and 6-7 sophomore Gary Redus swatting shots, it’s clear USA is still drawing the caliber of players they need to continue the tradition of going to four NCAAs and two NITs in the past 14 years.

6, Montevallo Falcons (in Montevallo) 4-0, 24-7; beat Concordia 100-67 on 12/1/2009 – I’m sure Division I programs won’t agree with having Montevallo and UAH ranked 6th and 7th, however when the computer’s crunch the numbers on all the games played, they come out virtually even with the Division I teams in the state except for the Top 4. Division II teams do defeat Division I teams in basketball, and with Montevallo finishing the season by beating the No. 1 Division II team and then following up by beating a team near the top today, I am confident this is where they belong.

7, Alabama Huntsville Chargers (in Huntsville) 6-0, 23-7; beat North Alabama 97-79 on 3/5/2010 (on road) – I actually think it was a very close call between Montevallo and UAH for the top spot of non-Division I schools. All UAH did was have their best record ever in Division II at 23-7, and when you consider that much of their success was the result of two FRESHMAN dominating (see note today on Jamie Smith and Zane Campbell combining for 29 points in the NCAA game today), the Chargers should be SCARY good the next few years.

8, Jacksonville State Gamecocks (in Jacksonville) 1-1, 11-19; beat West Alabama 93-64 – The Gamecocks had really put together a nice 7-7 start in a tough Ohio Valley Conference and then gave a GREAT Murray State team a run before losing. However, they lost their last six to drop a bit. Hopefully Nick Murphy and Jeremy Bynum will keep up their great shooting and Trenton Marshall will keep getting to the hoop so the three can have a great senior year and their first winning season since the great Walker Russell Jr. graduated in 2006.

9, Alabama State Hornets (in Montgomery) 5-1, 15-14; beat Alabama A&M 80-76 on 2/8/2010 (on road) – after being hit hard by graduation from the only state team to make the NCAA in 2009, Alabama State started 9-13 but then played great the rest of the way. They closed the season by winning six straight and then dropping a 1-point heartbreaker to Jackson State in the regular season finale. The Hornets then beat A&M for the third time, and lost a heartbreaker on a last second turnover to Arkansas Pine Bluff in the SWAC tourney, or they might have snuck back to the tourney. The Hornets do lose three key seniors, BUT Tramaine Butler should have a dominant senior season after being one of the top players in the country at stealing the ball and then driving to the hoop. If he can just improve his 54% free throw shooting, he should be a star.

10, Tuskegee Golden Tigers (in Tuskegee) 3-3, 20-11; beat Miles 70-39 on 1/14/2010 – As I said in the intro, Clark Thomas’ heroics took the Golden Tigers to their first SIAC since 1979 with a huge upset of Clark Atlanta that led to the fans storming the court. They did lose today in the opening round of the NCAA Division II title, but it was an almost impossible matchup playing 25-1 Arkansas Tech, the top seed, in Arkansas. Hopefully getting a taste of the tournament will lead to a return trip next year.

11, Samford Bulldogs (in Birmingham) 1-2, 11-20; almost beat UAB 52-55 on 11/14/2009 (neutral court) – in late January the Bulldogs were clearly the 5th best team in the state, and could have been higher except for a 52-55 loss to UAB on a neutral court. However, from then on they lost 10 games while only beating Chattanooga twice to fail to regain the late season magic of 2009. Josh Davis (6-4) and Andy King (6-8), who hit 129 treys between them, will be back for their senior years.

12, Stillman Tigers (in Tuscaloosa) 4-2, 18-12; beat Alabama A&M 77-75 on 11/21/2009 (on road) – oops, had to fix this from the email some of you read. I had Stillman #13 and A&M #12, but since the Tigers went into A&M and pulled out the win, I have to flip them. It was a great year in which Stillman was picked finish last in the SIAC but finished 3rd, including beating Tuskegee at the end of the season before Tuskegee went onto win the conference tourney. One of the most exciting teams around, leading the conference in steals and scoring.

13, Alabama A&M Bulldogs (in Normal) 2-5, 11-15; beat Tuskegee 73-51 on 11/28/2009 – You can’t keep Coach Pettaway down for long. The program hit rock bottom at the beginning of the 2008-09 season with losses to non-Division 1 teams Oakwood and Talledega at home en route to an 8-19 season. It looked like more of the same when Stillman came in to beat A&M early, but it turned out Stillman was much better than anyone thought and 6-5 sophomore Casey Cantey was one of the best defensive players in the country as they improved to 11-16 despite playing South Carolina and Auburn. Hopefully, Cantey can lead the Bulldogs to their first winning season since superstar Obie Trotter graduated in 2006.

14, Mobile Rams (in Mobile) 6-3, 18-14; beat Faulkner 75-72 (on road) – Mobile had a great start that pushed them to the top of non-Division 1 schools in my early season stab at a ranking, and then went onto sweep Faulkner and go 17-11 in the GCAC. They beat three teams going to the NAIA DI tourney in #17 Life, #25 Tougaloo and #26 Belhaven. They also beat William Carey when they were ranked #18 in the country.

15, Wallace State CC Lions (in Hanceville) 12-3, 20-4; beat Marion Military 94-65 on 1/28/2010 (on road) – Wallace State avenged last year’s defeat against Shelton State with a 77-70 OT win on March 6 to advance to the National Junior College tournament against Butler CC . Unfortunately, the tournament is held in Butler’s home state of Kansas on March 16 at 8:30. Some four year schools may question me ranking Junior College teams this high, but the fact is many of the top players go the Junior College route for their first year or two, and L.A. Farmer (17.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.0 apg); Sergio Crow (11.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.0 apg); and Darrick Thomas (10.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.2 apg) would be able to beat many four year colleges.

16, Shelton State CC Buccaneers (in Tuscaloosa) 17-3, 25-3; beat Faulkner St 97-66 on 11/17/2009 (neutral court) – as noted above, Shelton State was basically dead even with Wallace State, but fell in overtime after beating the Lions last year. However, I should note that Wallace State also beat them in January 67-71 on their home court, so it was a sweep even though both were nail-biters.

17, North Alabama Lions (in Florence) 3-4, 13-16; beat Concordia 116-78 on 1/20/2010 – three time victims of the outstanding UAH team, the Lions had a strong win at Miles and destroyed Concordia in state play. Basically, they were dead even with West Alabama, losing by two on the road and winning by one at home, but looking at all the games I give them a slight advantage over the Tigers.

18, West Alabama Tigers (in Livingston) 4-5, 13-15; beat SE Bible 107-61 on 12/14/2009 – Almost pulled off a huge upset at Alabama State on December 22. See above on North Alabama. Concordia played them more competitively than they played North Alabama, but they were basically tied with North Alabama for 17th in the state.

19, Faulkner Eagles (in Montgomery) 8-3, 18-13; beat Talladega 92-78 on 11/21/2009 (on road) – had a solid season, but getting swept by the University of Mobile was the biggest setback to where I rank them.

20, Talladega Tornados (in Talladega) 7-3, 18-15; beat Concordia 79-51 on 1/5/2010 (on road) – Kerry Harvis was named USCAA (United States Collegiate Athletic Association) All-American and led the Tornados to another national title. Phil Wood was the tournament MVP. He had 17 points and 9 rebounds in the championship, while Kenny Irby added 23 points and also had 9 points. They also registered one win this season against a Division I team, beating Southern (which did lose by double digits to Alabama State and Alabama A&M, but then came within seven points of A&M at home). The Talladega women also won the title.

21, Auburn-Montgomery Senators (in Montgomery) 3-4, 14-13; beat Spring Hill 71-46 on 11/20/2009 – well, I jumped the gun on this one, initially ranking AUM in the Top 10 really based on their reputation from the great NAIA run in 2009. Once I got all dumped the data for all games in the system, I realized there were another 11 teams that were really better than them this year, but I’m sure they will be back in 2011.

22, Spring Hill Badgers (in Mobile) 6-6, 15-19; beat AUM 82-70 on 11/14/2009 – Spring Hill came out and established themselves early with wins against Talladega and AUM, and wrapped up a nice season with a win over Mobile at the end of February.

23, Birmingham Southern Panthers (in Birmingham) 2-0, 20-5; beat Huntingdon 89-76 on 12/12/2009 (on road) – As the state’s only Division III school, the Panthers are the hardest team to rank against other state schools. One thing for sure is that they were dominant in winning the SCAC conference, leading the conference in scoring (77 points), scoring margin (+10.7), assists (15.2), steals (9.2), turnover margin (+3.7) and 3-pointers per game (8.6). They could be higher, and did beat Huntingdon in their only two games against state teams, but since those were close games and both Faulkner and West Alabama beat Huntingdon by double digits, I can’t quite put them in the Top 20.

24, Oakwood Ambassadors (in Huntsville) 3-7, 16-11; almost beat Alabama A&M 81-86 on 11/13/2009 (on road) – Forward Landon Bertram was named USCAA Division 1 All-American, and the only problem the Ambassadors had was having to play eventual national champion Talladega three times.

25, Alabama Southern Eagles (in Monroeville) 14-3, 24-4; beat Faulkner St 63-58 on 2/4/2010 (on road) – The Eagles beat up on most of the state’s junior colleges, including beating Faulkner State on the road to claim the 25th spot over the Sun Chiefs. The only double digit loss they had was to eventually national tournament team Wallace State 75-61.

26, Faulkner State CC Sun Chiefs (in Bay Minette) 16-4, 20-8; beat Jefferson Davis 81-44 on 1/14/2010 – another strong junior college team, not to be confused with Faulkner. Three of their four state losses were against the last two year’s national tournament teams in Shelton State (twice) and Wallace State).

27, Southeastern Bible Sabers (in Birmingham) 0-6, 8-16; hung with Mobile 77-97 on 11/2/2009 (on road) – In the email, I originally listed the Sabers one spot behind Huntingdon, but I had to flip them based on the Sabers beating the Falcons 108-92 last year. The two didn’t play again this year, so with neither team winning a state game, I have to give the Sabers the tie-breaker based on last year’s head-to-head.

28, Huntingdon Falcons (in Montgomery) 0-3, 11-14; almost beat Birmingham Southern 60-64 on 2/13/2010 (on road) – The Falcons improved during the year, losing badly at home to Birmingham Southern on December 6, and then coming back to almost beat them on the road February 13.

29, Lawson State CC Cougars (in Birmingham) 4-4, 6-6; beat Wallace State 77-74 on 2/1/2010 (on road) - Lawson State was clearly the best of the Junior Colleges that play the shorter season, with a huge upset of national tournament team Wallace State. They lost the other matchup with Wallace State, and were swept by Shelton State, but were close in all four games and put up 121 points against the Wallace State team from Selma.

30, Snead State CC Parsons (in Boaz) 0-4, 1-4; almost beat Shelton State 72-74 on 1/28/2010 – Playing just a few games and winning only one may look bad, but their four state games were all against junior college powers Shelton State and Wallace State, and three of those four losses were by single digits, so they were close to three major upsets.

31, Gadsden State CC Cardinals (in Gadsden) 5-7, 5-7; beat Wallace State 73-65 on 2/20/2010 (on road) – perhaps the most exciting team in the state, scoring 100 points twice and 90 points five times including a thrilling 102-101 win over Jefferson Davis.

32, Marion Military Institute Tigers (in Marion) 3-6, 3-8; beat Chattahoochee 84-73 on 11/27/2009 (on road) – Almost stunned Shelton State on the road, and swept Jefferson Davis.

33, Miles Golden Bears (in Fairfield) 0-7, 3-24; almost beat Stillman 48-57 on 1/16/2010 (on road) - could have made their season if they’d pulled out the defensive battle with Stillman, or a single digit loss to Tuskegee, both in early January. Unfortunately, most of the rest of the year they were losing by pretty lopsided margins.

34, Concordia Hornets (in Selma) 1-11, 3-24; beat Oakwood 102-86 on 1/21/2010 – a decent offense that scored 100 points in the one big win of the year, but gave up 100 three times, and 98 and 99 on two other occasions, to make five state opponents who scored between 98 and 116 points.

35, Chattahoochee Valley CC Pirates (in Phenix City) 1-8, 2-11; beat Marion Military 49-44 on 11/17/2009 (on road) – five of their eight losses in state were by single digits, so just a little improvement could move them way up next year.

36, Wallace CC Patriots (in Selma) 1-8, 3-8; beat Marion Military 92-87 on 12/1/2009 (on road) – Not to be confused with the powerhouse in Hanceville, the Selma version of Wallace Community College was not as successful this year. Seven of their eight losses were by double figures, but they did come close against Alabama Southern.

37, Jefferson Davis CC Warhawks (in Brewton) 2-8, 2-12; almost beat Gadsden 101-102 on 11/5/2009 (neutral court) – like Concordia, if they can improve the defense a little they score enough to improve next year. In addition to the thriller against Gadsden, they gave up 100 to Alabama Southern and Shelton State.

38, Enterprise-Ozark CC Boll Weevils (in Enterprise) 0-5, 1-12; almost beat Faulkner St 63-67 on 2/8/2010 - While they didn’t win in state, they did pull out a thrilling 76-75 win on a neutral court against Gordon out of Barnesville, Georgia.

39, Lurleen B. Wallace CC Saints (in Andalusia) 0-8, 1-11; almost beat AL Southern 65-71 on 1/28/2010 – while they missed the big upset against Alabama Southern, they pulled off a big upset 55-54 over Pensacola, which won 11 games and is ranked in the top half of all college teams at any level.

40, Bishop State CC Wildcats (in Mobile) 0-4, 0-10; almost beat Faulkner St 61-67 on 1/28/2010 – I put them last because they didn’t win in the short season, but they almost started off the season with a road win at Meridian (MS) CC, losing only 78-70 in the home opener for each.

UAB, Troy now #1 and #2 in Alabama Top 10 - both have 50% shot at NCAA bid

Top 10 teams in Alabama (as of March 9, a.m.)

1. UAB 23-7 – easily the best team in the state, and could give Alabama a 2nd team in the tournament. They need to beat the Southern Miss/Tulane winner in the Conference USA tourney Thursday, then beat Memphis Friday in the semifinal. I think if they win those two, they will replace Memphis for one of the last spots in the tourney, but they could guaranty a bid by also winning Saturday to take the title, probably against UTEP who barely held off UAB on a shot at the buzzer in their last game.

2. Troy 20-12 – started them at No. 6, but they won at Auburn early, won the Sun Belt season, and can now win the title tonight at 6 p.m. and go to the tournament. Coach Don Maestri, best known for Troy's 258-141 win over DeVry in 1992 (still a record for points and for the 51 three-pointers made by Troy), won a defensive struggle in the semifinal game last night, with Richard Delk hitting a late 3-pointer from the right wing with 13.2 seconds left, and top-seeded Troy scored the game's final seven points for a 54-48 win.

3. Alabama 16-14 - Closed with wins at South Carolina and vs. Auburn, so they could beat South Carolina Thursday at Noon, but then would still have to beat Kentucky at noon Friday, and win Saturday at 2:15 and Sunday at Noon for the SEC title to go to the NCAA.

4. Auburn 15-16 – Needs to beat Florida Thursday at 6:30, Mississippi State at 6:30, and then Saturday at 2:15 and Sunday at Noon to win SEC title and go to NCAA. At only 3-11 away from home this year that would be tough.

5. USA 17-15 – upset Troy last year to make Sun Belt conference title game last year, but Troy was ready this year and eliminated them in quarterfinals, so no NCAA chance.

6. Alabama State 15-14 – after losing most players from last year’s NCAA team, they improved steadily to finish 15-14 and I’ve moved them ahead of Samford and Jacksonville State. Alabama A&M has also improved, and the two teams meet Thursday in the SWAC opening round. The winner would most likely play Arkansas-Pine Bluff, then Jackson State to win the SWAC and go to the NCAA.

7. Samford 11-20 - only lost by 3 to UAB early, but won just two of their last 10 to be eliminated.

8. Jacksonville State 11-19 – they are going up against tough competition in the Ohio Valley Conference and should catch up to them.

9. Alabama Huntsville 23-6 – I had them picked as the best non-Division 1 team in the rankings at the beginning of the season, and they had a fantastic season and were just invited to the NCAA Division 2 title.

10. AUM 14-13 – AUM isn’t anywhere near where they were last year during their NAIA tournament run, but they did split with Faulkner, Mobile and Spring Hill after early losses to the latter two, and finished higher in the standings than those three in there respective conferences, so I sneak them into my Top 10.

Haven’t updated #11 to #26 from the early season rankings, so feel free to comment if you have an update on any of them.

Alabama-Huntsville will represent Alabama in the NCAA Division 2 tournament after a great season, and Troy can represent Alabama in the NCAA Division 1 tourney with a win tonight in the Sun Belt championship game at 6 p.m.

In fact, the top two teams in the state (Troy and UAB) both have a 50-50 chance to make the tournament. If they both do it that would make the first time since 2006 (USA, UAB and Alabama) that more than one state team made the tourney. Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Alabama and Auburn are all longshots, needing to win the SWAC or SEC tourney to make it, however with Auburn’s new arena opening next year and Grant pulling in players that can play his style in Tuscaloosa, brighter days could be ahead for hoops in the state that is already producing a lot of talent for out-of-state programs.

Compare my early season top 25 of state college teams compared to my current Top 10.

Alabama's top 25 college hoops teams - updated 3 months later

Three months after putting out a list of the Top 25 teams in Alabama, my first place pick UAB is the only team with a shot at an at-large bid to represent the state in the NCAA tournament. While any team could make the Division 1 tourney by winning their conference championship, Troy (Sun Belt) seems to be the only state team with a good shot as one of 13-5 teams atop the Sun Belt, while South Alabama (USA) and Alabama State (SWAC) have an outside shot of the auto bid.

A few months later, the two changes I’d definitely make are that I have again underestimated Troy by putting them at No. 6. I’d move them up to No. 3 at 18-11 and having gone into Auburn and won. Of course, the main fun of that initial email at the end of November was ranking all of the NAIA, Division 2 and Division 3 schools along with the Division 1 schools. After that post, Auburn-Montgomery (AUM) avenged early season losses against Spring Hill and the University of Mobile, so they probably pop back ahead of Mobile into the Top 10.

However, Alabama-Huntsville (UAH), the home of the tragic shooting by a professor, is clearly the best non-Division 1 team in the state as my 9th place pick. They could be as good as a rebuilding Division 1 Alabama State team to be the 8th best team in the state, but with no common opponents it’s hard to see.

Anyway, would love any feedback from anyone on any of the teams, particularly the non-Division 1 schools where info is sometimes harder to find.
Here is the original post from the end of November:

ALABAMA’S TOP 25 COLLEGE HOOPS TEAMS

NOVEMBER, 2009 - Having seen my Auburn Tigers fall just short in the Iron Bowl, I hoped to at least get a little revenge with my basketball alma mater Marquette facing the Tide on the basketball court today. However, the young Marquette team shocked #15 Michigan to get to the title game in the Old Spice tournament today against Florida State (ESPN2, today at 6:30 p.m. CST) right after Alabama plays Michigan at 4 p.m. CST in the consolation game with a chance for a third win against a BCS conference team.
A win would be a chance for Alabama to challenge UAB for state basketball supremacy with Auburn and their new arena not far behind. I’ve never seen any attempt to rank all of the state’s basketball programs – so here goes my ranking of the Top 25 basketball programs in Alabama:

Top 25 Alabama College Basketball teams - as of November

1, UAB (Birmingham) – Still the best team in the state, and with Memphis losing John Calipari to Kentucky, UAB finally has a chance to win Conference USA. Had a scare from Samford, but blew out Troy and Jacksonville State.
2, University of Alabama (Tuscaloosa) – The Anthony Grant era gives Bama a real chance at reaching new heights, and with upset wins over Providence (Big East) and Baylor (Big 12), a win at 4 p.m. today against #15 Michigan would put them well ahead of schedule.
3, Auburn University (Auburn) – The recruits are lining up to play in the new arena next year, and the near miss against NC State from the ACC showed the potential for the Tigers to make another run this year.
4, University of South Alabama (Mobile) – After an uncharacteristically bad 2008-09, USA will be back competing for the Sun Belt Conference.
5, Samford University (Birmingham) – Despite a slow start, I put them ahead of Troy based on their near upset of UAB , losing by 3 compared to the 18-point win UAB had over Troy. They can compete in the Southern Conference.
6, Troy University (Troy) – They will battle to try to match last year’s breakthrough season and once again battle USA and the rest of the Sunbelt for an NCAA berth. FEBRUARY NOTE – I’D MOVE TROY TO NO. 3 IN THE STATE TODAY.
7, Jacksonville State University (Jacksonville) – Almost upset Georgia and beat Western Alabama by 29 points, so hope to compete in the Ohio Valley.
8, Alabama State University (Montgomery) –The gap between them an the top NAIA teams in the state (e.g. beat AUM by 9 last year) as well as top Division 2 teams (e.g. beat West Alabama by just 12) will be even tighter this year, as they lost key players from the team that won the SWAC and was the only Alabama team in the NCAA Division 1 tournament last year.
9, University of Alabama in Huntsville (Huntsville) – Several Division 2 teams in the state are very close to Division 1 teams and probably better than a rebuilding D1 Alabama A&M team, but I’ll give the nod for the No. 9 spot to Huntsville who has looked the best of the three Gulf South Conference teams with a 3-1 start.
10, University of Mobile (Mobile) – I’m going out on a limb rating Mobile of the Gulf Coast Athletic Conference as the 10th best team in the state after they didn’t even get a vote for the NAIA preseason Top 20. However, they shocked Division 1 Louisianna-Lafayette 68-64 in one exhibition, then led for a half against Division 1 New Orleans. In state they’ve already handled Southeastern Bible College 97-77, won at Faulkner 75-72, and upset 20th ranked UAM 78-76. It may not last, but so far they’ve been the 10th best team in the state.
11, Auburn University-Montgomery (Montgomery) – The preseason #20 team in the NAIA nudges out Division 2 West Alabama by virtue of playing Alabama State tougher than West Alabama did last year. They will compete for the Southern States Athletic Conference despite a slow start.
12, University of West Alabama (Livingston) – A 3-1 start with the only loss being to #23 Delta State indicates West Alabama could emerge to win their Division in the Gulf South Conference over Division 2 lost Jacksonville by 29. Last year they did worse than AUM vs. Alabama State.
13, University of North Alabama (Florence) – Just a few years removed from the Division 2 Elite 8, North Alabama could still win the Gulf South Conference despite a 2-2 overall start.
14, Faulkner University (Montgomery) – Despite the narrow loss to Mobile, Faulkner should be competitive in the Southern States Athletic Conference of the NAIA.
15, Spring Hill College (Mobile) – This NAIA Gulf Coast Athletic Conference team showed they were nowhere near Division 1 South Alabama (29 point loss) or even the top NAIA teams (lost to to AUM by 25). However, they beat USCAA national champion Talladega College, which in turn beat Tuskegee and Stillman, to give Spring Hill the nod over them. They also received one top 20 vote in the preseason NAIA poll that had AUM No. 20.
16, Talladega College (Talladega) – For the second straight year, an Alabama school won the United States Collegiate Athletic Association (small school) National Championship, finishing 22-8 last year. Talladega started this season ranked #1 in the USCAA again, and came within 11 of beating Division 1 Alabama State while defeating Division 1 Alabama A&M as well as two state Division 2 teams (Tuskegee and Stillman). They have defeated SWAC teams in the past, and even accused Grambling State of deliberately not bringing referees to a game to avoid another Talladega win over the SWAC.
17, University of Montevallo (Montevallo) – Montevallo was one of four Alabama teams in the Gulf South Conference until moving to another Division 2 Conference, the Peach Belt Athletic Conference , this year. They had an impressive 76-63 over Miles, which swept Tuskegee and split with Stillman last year. They beat Southeastern Bible by 28 this year, and were picked to finish ahead of Columbus State, which almost upset Alabama State already this year.
18, Miles College (Fairfield) – Miles is picked to finish near the bottom of the Division 2 Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, but swept Tuskegee last year and beat Stillman by 19 after losing to them by 3 points for a split.
19, Stillman College (Tuscaloosa) – Stillman was also picked to finish near the bottom of the Division 2 Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, behind Miles, but then stunned Division 1 Alabama A&M by 2.
20, Alabama A & M University (Normal) – Despite being Division 1, Alabama A&M has struggled even against non-Division 1 teams last year and this, and should still be a the bottom of the SWAC. They survived a scare by Division 2 Tuskegee last year, lost to Division 2 Stillman this year as well as Oakwood and Talladega of the small school United States Collegiate Athletic Association last year. However, the rebuilding effort is already showing improvement, as they have already rebounded to beat Oakwood this year.
21, Tuskegee University (Tuskegee) – Alabama’s third team in the Division 2 Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, like Stillman and Miles, is not expected to compete for the Conference title. However, the already have narrowly missed an upset of the preseason 4th place pick Clark Atlantic, so they could move up.
22, Oakwood College (Huntsville) – Oakwood won the United States Collegiate Athletic Association national championship two years ago before seeing fellow Alabama school Talladega take it this year. They started this season ranked No. 3 in the USCAA, two behind Talladega, and have lost to A&M by 5 this year after beating them last year.
23, Birmingham Southern College (Birmingham) – Just a few years ago Birmingham Southern was beating Division 1 teams, so they may be better than this in the Division 3 Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference Division. They have dominated fellow conference team Huntingdon for a few years, and are off to a 3-0 start this year after finishing 8th of 12 in the conference last year.
24, Concordia College (Selma) – Concordia is the third ranked Alabama team in the small school United States Collegiate Athletic Association, coming in at No. 18 in the preseason poll that had Talladega and Oakwood in the top three.
25, Southeastern Bible College (Birmingham) – Competing in the National Christian College Athletic Association (NCCAA), Southeastern Bible College lost to the University of Mobile 97-77, and last year lost to Talladega 92-76, West Alabama 91-67 and Spring hill 94-70. However, while Huntingdon College (Montgomery) of the Division 3 Great South Athletic Conference might be the logical No. 25 team in the state, Southeastern Bible College did beat Huntingdon 104-90 for their only win against another Alabama school last year, so I have to give them the nod as the 25th best team in the state over Huntingdon.